Iran is dangerous – but rational

We’ve been here before. Iran has been here before. In 2020 its most senior IRGC commander, Qassem Soleimani, was killed in a US air strike on his convoy as they drove out of Baghdad airport. Soleimani was a much mythologised figure across the Middle East, famed for his ability to direct Iran’s regional proxies to do Tehran’s bidding. The world held its breath in anticipation of a terrifying response, a global war, commensurate with the purple prose coming out of Tehran’s military and political organs. And yet not a huge amount happened, save for a few desultory missiles being shot into the middle distance of northern Iraq. And the shooting down of an Iranian passenger plane by the IRGC. 

Will something similar play out following Israel’s missile killing of Mohammad Reza Zahedi, commander of Iran’s Quds force?

The world has changed dramatically since 2020. The war in Ukraine has pushed Iran closer to Russia, building on already strong ties forged in the defence of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad in that country’s brutal civil war.