Iran has the most to lose if it closes the Strait of Hormuz

Following the mass ballistic missile attack on Israel at the beginning of the month, speculation is rife once again that Iran might close the Strait of Hormuz should it be subject to the reprisal attack promised by Israel. The thinking is that this is particularly likely if Israel were to attack Iranian oil facilities.

Iran certainly has the capability to close the Strait, at least in the short term. Recent experience in the Red and Black Seas shows clearly that not every ship attempting passage needs to be attacked: the increased risk – and heightened insurance premiums – following a small number of attacks will be enough to persuade owners to withdraw their vessels from the potential danger.

The geography of the Strait of Hormuz favours Iran. For 80 nautical miles, the shipping channel through the Strait is within about 20 nautical miles of the Iranian coastline. This