Good news – at least for those who hold faith in economic forecasts. The IMF has just eradicated half the recession it forecast, in January, for Britain. At that point, it expected the UK economy to shrink by 0.6 per cent over 2023 – which would have meant Britain uniquely suffering a recession among advanced nations. Today, in its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF has revised that down to a fall of 0.3 per cent. Moreover, while the outlook for Britain has improved, for a number of other countries it has worsened, most notable for Germany and Japan. Germany is now also forecast to share our recession, with output falling by 0.1 per cent over 2023.
But then who cares, when economic forecasts have proved so wide of the mark in the past? Michael had a point about experts: the IMF had forecast that the UK economy would shrink by between 1.9
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