Inside the no-deal reasonable worst case scenario

I’ve been passed the government’s ‘reasonable worst case scenario planning assumptions to support civil contingencies planning for the end of the transition period’. The 34-page document describes itself as a ‘challenging manifestation of the risk in question’ but ‘not an extreme or absolute worst case scenario’.

A government source confirmed the official sensitive document, which was written in September, still underpins contingency planning. It is ‘not a forecast’ but a ‘reasonable’ assessment of what could happen to us if, in the next day or so, talks collapse on a free trade agreement with the European Union and the negotiations can’t be rescued.

Also, as Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster Michael Gove has conceded, too few businesses are prepared for the increased bureaucratic burden of trading with the EU even if there is a free trade agreement — so some of the ‘reasonable worst case’ shocks could materialise in any circumstances.

So what are those possible shocks? Well, these are the main headlines:

1. Flow rates of medicines and medical products ‘could initially reduce to 60 to 80 per cent over three months which, if unmitigated, would impact on the supply of medicines and medical products across the UK’.
2. ‘Protests