Inside Russia’s military collapse in Ukraine

The Russian military has performed far worse in Ukraine than anyone could ever have predicted. After failing to take Kyiv, Russian troops have now been forced to focus on the Donbas region. Despite this greater concentration of forces, they are still struggling to make any major gains beyond the final capture of Mariupol, which had been under siege since the first days of the invasion without resupply or relief.

For Vladimir Putin this represents a grand humiliation. But for the West, Russia’s struggling campaign offers an unrivalled opportunity to understand Russia’s capacity to pose a future military threat. Key to this will be working out how many of Russia’s current failings are down to the specific circumstances in Ukraine, and how many are due to systemic problems within the Russian military itself.

Some of Russia’s most catastrophic losses occurred during the first few weeks of its invasion of the north of Ukraine in the suburbs of Kyiv, as well as around Chernihiv, Sumy and Kharkiv.