Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Inflation at 4.2 per cent is nothing to cheer

Are today’s inflation figures cause for celebration? The Consumer Price Index rose a mere 4.2 per cent in the year to December, down from 4.8 per cent in November. So, yes, a sharp drop — but only a statistical boffin could describe this as good news. Sure, a similar drop can be expected when the VAT rise drops out of the comparison figures next month. But the prices confronting British shoppers are still rising at twice the supposed inflation target, and will keep rising above this target for months to come. The following graph shows the trajectory we can expect for CPI and RPI over the next few years:

The misery that inflation inflicts on the public is, of course, mitigated by pay rises. The two must be regarded together, and the fact that pay is failing to keep pace with inflation means the nation is midway through the sharpest contraction in living standards in 80 years — which is certainly is nothing to boast about.

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