In defiance of all gloomy predictions, the global economy begins this year in its healthiest state ever

This piece first appeared as the leading article in this week’s Spectator magazine.

It is only a few months since gloomy economic commentators were confidently predicting that the world was about to plunge into a dark era of protectionism. Yet the global economy begins this year in its healthiest state ever, growing faster than any time since 2011. There has been a change in political rhetoric, but not in the willingness of people around the world to trade with each other. According to the OECD’s most-recent projection, made in November, world trade grew at 4.8 per cent last year. Something seems to be going badly right.

Negative sentiments about the world economy echo those which have hung over Britain’s economy ever since the Brexit referendum. A month before that event, it should never be forgotten, a Treasury paper signed by George Osborne forecast that ‘a vote to leave would cause an immediate and profound economic shock’, causing a recession with half a million more on the dole.