In America we trust

Bill Emmott, the editor of the Economist and author of The Sun Also Sets which accurately predicted the decline of Japan, believes there are two fundamental questions to ask at the beginning of the 21st century. Can capitalism continue to be the dominant force? And, in his words, ‘Will America continue to lead the world and keep the peace?’ Both draw an unsurprising, resounding yes, with many qualifications and much invested in the fine detail where the book’s heartland lodges.

Emmott’s discussion depends on two beliefs central to the framing of these questions. First is that we can only predict the future by looking at the past. Thus committed to history, he augurs the future without compiling mountains of historical evidence to buttress his arguments, although much of his analysis recounts familiar 20th-century history. He also thinks the two questions in the first paragraph cannot be asked in isolation: ‘the truth is that the two will be intertwined’, and he is surely right.