As the world tries to understand more about the trajectory of the coronavirus, a study from the Engineering faculty of Imperial College London has produced a hypothesis that, they say, fits a large number of countries so far. Prof Tom Pike found that once lockdown begins, coronavirus follows a similar pattern seen by Wuhan in several countries surveyed.
The model has significant – and grim – implications for New York
The model has significant – and grim – implications for the state of New York. Until recently, the USA released nationwide figures on coronavirus infections and deaths. When the figures for individual states were released, it showed the virus was more widespread in New York than had been previously understood. When Prof Pike applies the Wuhan pattern to New York, it suggests deaths there peaking at around 1,000 a day in late April, with 18,000 to 30,000 deaths in total. This compares to a peak of about 150 deaths a day recorded in China, while Italy has seen over 900 deaths in a single day.
As always with Covid studies, big caveats apply – and the uncertainty around the data remains huge. Prof
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