Government figures today show a sharp fall in net migration – 230,000 over the year to June, compared with 336,000 in the previous 12 months. If it keeps falling at that rate for another 18 months, Theresa May will have fulfilled David Cameron’s rash promise to reduce net migration to tens of thousands – if that, indeed, is an achievement worth trumpeting.
For many it isn’t. The fall has reignited claims that the NHS, business and other employers are suffering a Brexit-induced drought of qualified staff, as EU workers desert ‘xenophobic’ Britain and are not replaced. Certainly, the bulk of the reduction in net migration – 80,000 of it – can be attributed on EU citizens, but to use the term ‘Brexodus’ rather ignores the fact that while there has been a fall in net migration still more EU citizens arrived in Britain than left. That is no exodus, merely a slowing-down in what would more accurately be described as an ‘entrodus’.
Moreover, the overall figures mask two very different trends.
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