If tiers don’t work, expect a third wave in the new year

‘The difficulty is that we’re coming out of the tough autumn measures, out of the lockdown… with the incidence of the disease still pretty high,’ Boris Johnson explained on Friday.

It is against this backdrop that he finds himself trying to sell tougher Covid rules as England emerges from the November lockdown. It is an especially difficult sell, of course, when an area has been placed in a higher tier than before the lockdown – even if, as in many instances, cases are now lower than when the tier system was first introduced. It understandably appears incoherent and arbitrary.

The Prime Minister’s case is that he hates lockdowns too, but observing the Tier system properly is the quickest way to normality. A failure to do so will mean we end up back in lockdown. 

Realism, on this score, is vital. And it’s a hard sell. Fatigued by restrictions on everyday life, people are questioning the effectiveness of the second lockdown.