One of the reasons that most pundits still think that Gordon Brown will survive is that there is no obvious alternative to him. Personally, I’m sceptical as to whether anyone could now deny the Tories an overall majority at the next election barring some unforeseen event; the public mood really does appear to have shifted decisively against Labour. However, I do think that Alan Johnson would keep the Tory majority down more effectively than anyone else.
Johnson is the best communicator in the cabinet and has a natural rapport with the voters. His life story is attractive and he seems to understand the aspiring classes better than anyone else in government. (Hazel Blears deserves an honourable mention in this category even though she is nowhere near as good a media performer as Johnson). He is also the only figure you can plausibly imagine patching the Labour party back together after Brown has been deposed.
As an ex-union leader, Johnson has appeal to that section of the party but he is also admired by the reforming wing because of his work in pushing through top-up fees and the like. That he is English and hails from London, could help ease Labour’s problems in the south.
The obvious objection to this argument is that Johnson himself has declared that he is not intellectually up to the job. But I think he has good enough sense of humour, to laugh this off pretty effectively. One should also note that his failure to beat Harriet Harman in the deputy leadership contest does raise questions about his campaigning skills.
It is still more likely than not that Brown will lead Labour into the next election. There is no sign yet that sufficient Labour MPs have the stomach for an effort to prise the Prime Minister out of No. 10. But if the polls continue to get worse for Labour and the next set of elections are as disastrous as the last lot, then they might conclude that it is a matter of necessity to change leader. In those circumstances, I suspect that Johnson would look like the most attractive choice.
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