Germany wants nothing less than an unconditional surrender from the new Greek government. It is hard to draw any other conclusion from Berlin’s decision to reject Greece’s proposal for a six month extension of the current bailout, which counted as an almost total climb-down by the Syriza-led government. But it seems that the Germans—with an eye on the Spanish elections later this year —want to show that voting for radical, anti-austerity parties gets you absolutely nothing.
However, the Germans may well have miscalculated. The Greek Finance Minister wants Greece to leave the euro but, because the vast majority of Greeks wants to stay in the single currency, he has had to stop agitating for that. But, by refusing to acknowledge that the Greek election has any consequences at all, Berlin is making it far easier for Greeks to start making the case that they really have no choice but to leave.
Now so far, there has been no contagion effect from the latest Greek crisis—Spain is still borrowing at roughly the same rates as before. Yet, it is a mighty risk to imagine that the markets would react calmly to Greece leaving the Euro but if Germany continues in this uncompromising manner that is what it might come to.
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