If Boris doesn’t blink over Brexit, Starmer becomes unelectable

If it’s No Deal, then it will usher in a crisis that will highlight the leader’s negative baggage and remind everyone why he should never be trusted, probably dooming him to ignominious defeat at the next election.

If that is your view of the post-transition political landscape then I heartily agree. But, like most of the punditry, I bet you’ve got the wrong leader in mind. Because the man who will actually be holed below the waterline is Keir Starmer, not Boris Johnson. Let me explain by going through what No Deal will mean for each leader.

Certainly a No Deal end to the Brexit transition is likely to be accompanied by bumpy times during the ensuing adjustment, including queues at ports and even shortages of particular products. It is therefore by no means guaranteed that Johnson won’t take a short-term hit from all this in the eyes of some potential Tory voters.