Iain Duncan Smith’s welfare reform is hanging in the balance

‘The Republicans are the party that says government doesn’t work and then they get elected and prove it,’ wrote P.J. O’Rourke in 1991. He might well say the same thing about the Conservatives in 2013. The much-trumpeted reform of the benefit system, the Universal Credit scheme, had a warning sign slapped on it last week by the Major Projects Authority (MPA). This was a bitter blow for Tories who want Universal Credit to succeed, not just because it is right, but because if it fails, it will discourage future governments from taking on important far-reaching reforms.

It is too early to say whether Universal Credit (which rolls six benefits into one monthly payment) will sink or swim. Its first pilots launched in April, and Whitehall insiders insist that the ‘amber/red’ warning from the MPA is hardly a surprise when you consider quite how ambitious this reform is. It was always unlikely to get a green light.