How Ukraine’s drone attacks can hit Russia where it hurts

On the morning of 16 March, Ukrainian drones struck multiple refineries in the Samara region of Russia, For more than a week, Ukrainian drones have targeted Russian oil infrastructure, particularly refineries. If the attacks become regular and continue indefinitely, they will impose significant costs on the Russian economy and military. 

Ukraine is presenting Russia with the same air defence dilemma that Kyiv currently faces. Russia uses missiles and Shahed drones to attack Ukrainian cities. Ukraine has to keep a massive amount of its air defence behind the frontlines. Doing so offers the Russian air force slightly more safety in the air and diverts international focus from providing Ukraine with offensive systems. A large amount of foreign military aid to Ukraine has been aimed solely at defending cities far from the bulk of the fighting.

The major difference is that Russia’s oil dependency means that strikes on refineries will have an outsized impact on their economy. Oil money makes up a plurality of Russia’s federal revenue and is a major bargaining chip in its relations with countries like India.