Since Russia invaded Ukraine, the West has got many things right. Yet there is no doubt that Western mistakes over the past few years, and splits in the weeks and months beforehand, made Putin think he could get away with his invasion. The West cannot afford to repeat these with Taiwan, I say in the Times today.
There are four lessons that the West should learn from Ukraine if it is to deter China from attacking Taiwan. First, it should be explicit that Beijing will be hit with sanctions at least as strong as those on Russia if it tries to blockade or take Taiwan.
The West should move to equip the Taiwanese forces now rather than waiting until the invasion fleet is on the horizon
Second, the West should act now to reduce its dependence on China. Just think how much more effective the sanctions on Russia would be if they could hit its oil and gas exports too.
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