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[/audioplayer]For centuries, the possibility of Scottish independence seemed so remote as to be laughable. Until recently the nationalists seemed quixotic, rather than menacing. Now, however, we are facing the very real prospect of a ‘yes’ vote in the Scottish referendum in September, which would in all probability result in the resignation of David Cameron as Prime Minister. An ICM survey published at the weekend found that 48 per cent of voters who have made up their minds intend to vote for separation. The stakes are terribly high.
There is much debate about the real state of public opinion, and much faith placed in the old rule that, as a referendum draws near, undecided voters tend to favour the status quo. But partition of the United Kingdom and the end of 300 years of shared history is a real threat. George Osborne’s main gambit, saying that a separate Scotland would not be allowed to use the pound, has, if anything, strengthened the ‘yes’ vote.
For decades, it was possible to puncture the myths created by the Scottish National Party by simply pointing out the trouble that partition would cause. Most economists agree that an independent Scotland would not be a land of milk, honey and oil, but would be the world capital of austerity, since any government would have to close the gap between its promises and its capacity to pay for them. The Scottish National Party has always protested against ‘negativity’ and ‘bullying’ from its enemies, because it dislikes anyone listing the many ways in which separation would hurt ordinary Scots.
But it now seems that the unionists have overplayed their hand.
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