How soon will we see the benefits of the vaccine roll-out?

How soon might we see the vaccine effect? With the programme in full swing, and over 2.5 million people with their first jab, the hope is that the prioritisation of the most vulnerable groups means that we will soon see a meaningful reduction in the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths. But how soon? For some time now, my colleagues at the Covid-19 Actuaries Response Group have been looking at various figures.

We are familiar with modelling showing how Covid-19 deaths may rise if the rise of the virus were to continue unchecked. But what follows is modelling for a different scenario: how the Covid-19 figures would fall if things go broadly to plan.

As with all models, all depends on the assumptions. The following are used:-

• The vaccine is 70 per cent effective at preventing infection (as per the view of the four countries’ Chief Medical Officers).
• But