The link between Covid cases and hospitalisations has been broken, we keep being told – vaccination having reduced the severity of infections, especially among more vulnerable older groups. It is a point reinforced this morning by Public Health England which reveals that the number of cases of the delta (formerly Indian) variant have increased from 12,431 to 42,323 in a week, but without a corresponding rise in hospitalisations.
But how true is it that what looks like a third wave in new infections will not be accompanied by a large wave of hospitalisations? Previous experience with Covid – using PHE data – suggests there is not a very long lag between cases and hospitalisations. In January, new cases peaked at 68,053 on 8 January; hospitalisations at 4578 four days later.
In the first wave, hospitalisations actually peaked four days ahead of new cases – although that was before the era of mass testing.
There are some signs of optimism that the rate of hospitalisations will not reach the levels it did in January
This time around, the third wave seems to have begun on 3 May – that was the day that cases bottomed out at 1649.
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