How serious is Britain's third wave?

The link between Covid cases and hospitalisations has been broken, we keep being told – vaccination having reduced the severity of infections, especially among more vulnerable older groups. It is a point reinforced this morning by Public Health England which reveals that the number of cases of the delta (formerly Indian) variant have increased from 12,431 to 42,323 in a week, but without a corresponding rise in hospitalisations.

But how true is it that what looks like a third wave in new infections will not be accompanied by a large wave of hospitalisations? Previous experience with Covid – using PHE data – suggests there is not a very long lag between cases and hospitalisations. In January, new cases peaked at 68,053 on 8 January; hospitalisations at 4578 four days later.

In the first wave, hospitalisations actually peaked four days ahead of new cases – although that was before the era of mass testing.