How Russia wins

It is still too early to predict the outcome of the war in Ukraine. Russia has certainly solidified its position in the east and is making small military gains. What’s become clear over the last few days is that Russia may, after all, be able to achieve at least some of its military goals.

Here is an interesting, albeit disturbing, political scenario by Sabine Fischer, a senior fellow at a German foreign policy tank. She notes that the mood in Moscow itself has shifted. It is the Kremlin’s political calculation that the western nations will not sustain their massive financial and military support for Ukraine. 

The longer the war drags on, the more tired Europe will become. By the autumn, just before the start of the winter, the Europeans’ priority will be to secure gas from Vladimir Putin. The Russian read-out of the telephone conversion with Karl Nehammer, the Austrian Chancellor, says that Putin has reaffirmed Russia’s contractual obligations with regard to gas supplies.