The biggest factor keeping Theresa May in office is the absence of an alternative Conservative leader with broad enough backing in the party to be crowned her successor, without causing a messy contest that could destabilise the party and put it out of power.
That is why some Tories are grimly resigned to Mrs May limping on until 2019 or so, when they hope Brexit talks may have come to something resembling a conclusion.
But there is an alternative scenario emerging. Philip Hammond is increasingly seen by some colleagues as the man to replace Mrs May in a relatively smooth and bloodless transition later this year.
The Chancellor’s name has come up in several conversations I’ve had with Conservatives this week. Even old foes are wondering if he is the best alternative to sticking with a badly wounded PM for two long, dangerous years.
An alternative scenario might look something like this: over the summer recess, Mrs May is ‘persuaded’ by senior colleagues that her time is up.
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