Boris Johnson is very much the elephant in the room of this leadership race, looming large over both Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss. And much like an intimidating pachyderm, neither candidate seems completely confident how to handle him without being squashed.
Sunak’s approach is the simpler one: talk about the defenestrated premier as little as possible and for God’s sake don’t mention how the ex-Chancellor helped bring him down. Truss meanwhile has opted to praise the former PM while, er, claiming to be the change candidate who’d take a completely different approach in office. This of course begs the question: what do the Tory members actually think? Are they pining once more for Boris? Or are they glad to see the back of him?
Polling would suggest something of a mixed picture. There’s still much goodwill towards the former leader and little enthusiasm towards his two would-be successors. A Times and YouGov poll between 19 July and 2 August found that 40 per cent of Tory members picked Johnson over Truss on 28 per cent and Sunak on 23 per cent.
It also found that most members (53 per cent) thought it was wrong for MPs to force Johnson to resign, compared to 41 per cent who supported the change of leadership. That’s partly to do with the subsequent contest too: 45 per cent of members think it has shown the party in a good light, three times as many as the 15 per cent who think it’s been a good thing.
For just a fortnight earlier, the same company found that most members wanted Johnson to quit. YouGov found between 6 to 7 July that 59 per cent of Tory members surveyed thought he should go compared to just 36 per cent who said he ‘should not’ resign. And, looking to the future, there’s little sign that Johnson is seen as part of that, in the eyes of members.
A separate YouGov poll of 20-21 July and published at the end of the month found that just 40 per cent of members wanted Johnson to be given a cabinet role under the new PM, compared to 50 per cent against. Kemi Badenoch and Ben Wallace, by contrast, would have the support of more than 80 per cent of members were she to be given a cabinet post. Out of 14 leading Tories, only Jeremy Hunt was a less popular choice than Johnson for cabinet.
If Boris is unable to wear the crown, then the sentiment suggests he ought to be banished from the court. Much like his time in office, Johnson continues to divide the grassroots: there’s unease about the manner of his departure and his likely successors. But those hoping for Maggie-style displays of residual loyalty are likely to be left disappointed.
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