How many Tory MPs will back staying in the EU?

With the government still convinced that there’s a better than 50:50 chance of a deal at the February EU Council which would pave the way for an EU referendum in June, the pressure on Tory backbenchers to back the Prime Minister is being stepped up. This week, saw the launch of the Cameron endorsed, pro-EU membership Conservatives for Reform in Europe group. Those involved in this group are confident, as I write in The Sun today, that they will get the support of a majority of Tory MPs.

Tory MPs are being left in no doubt as to what side Cameron wants them on come the referendum. The message to them, as one of those close to Cameron puts it, is that a ‘free vote doesn’t mean a free pass’.

But there are reasons to suspect that the referendum timetable might slip. Other EU governments don’t seem as confident that a deal will be ready by the February council.