I am on a Today Programme panel this week playing a prediction game modelled on the famous Doomsday Clock. The idea is for Michael Portillo, Jackie Ashley, John Curtice, Peter Kilfoyle and myself to guess how close we are to midnight—if 11:45 is the furthest away we can be, and midnight is the calling of an election. This morning, I thought the positive headlines for the Tories would nudge Gordon in the direction of caution, and opted for 11:53. Michael went boldly for 11:57, only three minutes away from blast-off, on the grounds that the PM has made his mind up but is just waiting for Cameron’s speech as a final check. We have to update our estimates every day as the political picture changes. I have to send my next prediction in on Wednesday morning. What do Coffee Housers think?

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