How long can the SNP ignore Scotland’s looming fiscal timebomb?

A new report from Holyrood’s finance and public administration committee is unusually blunt in its assessment. But is the SNP up to the task of dealing with Scotland’s looming fiscal time bomb? It seems unlikely. The Scottish government has given no signal of being serious about facing up to that challenge. Indeed, if anything, the ruling SNP-Green coalition has an incentive to make the budget situation worse. If so, Nicola Sturgeon can’t say she wasn’t warned.

In its report scrutinising the Scottish government’s proposed budget for 2022/23, the committee says: 

‘We consider that evidence showing that Scotland is lagging behind almost all other areas of the rest of the UK in key indicators of economic performance is deeply worrying.’

It continues: 

‘We are particularly concerned to note the latest SFC (Scottish Fiscal Commission) Forecasts showing Scotland’s income tax receipts falling behind the Block Grant Adjustment, which we consider could, if they come to pass, put Scotland’s future fiscal sustainability at risk.’

The SNP-Green-dominated committee did not go so far as to criticise the government (this is Holyrood, not Westminster), but its willingness to be honest about future fiscal challenges the Scottish administration is likely to face was at least refreshing.