How likely is a global recession this year?

The best thing that can be said about global economic growth prospects for 2023 is that no-one is expecting very much. On that basis, hopefully, things can only get better.

Over the weekend, International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director Kristalina Georgieva said that she expects a third of the globe to be in recession, including half of the EU. That doesn’t sound too bad on the face of it. If the IMF’s predictions proved to be accurate – and the record of economic forecasting is pretty dire – it would still mean that the economy was still growing in two thirds of world. We might, yet, avert global recession.

But then how often does the world as a whole sink into recession? UK government ministers are often very quick to use the term ‘global recession’ as it makes Britain’s experience seem less bad if we can be argued merely to be following what is going on elsewhere in the world.