How John Swinney changes his stripes

Turning around a government that has lost its way is one of the trickiest feats in politics, all the more so if that government has enjoyed a long stretch of incumbency. The big beasts are gone, everyone who’s left is exhausted, the voter coalition is coming apart, and some begin to question the party’s purpose in power. ‘Time for a change’ is no longer just an opposition talking point: even insiders wonder if a spell out of office wouldn’t be for the best. A party veteran or a rising star steps forward, pledging renewal, a fresh direction and a fighting chance come the next election. That was the offer made by James Callaghan in 1976, Gordon Brown in 2007 and Rishi Sunak in 2022. They each failed and their parties went down to significant defeats.

Might John Swinney buck this trend? The SNP leader will have been gratified by a poll putting him on course to win the next Scottish parliament elections, securing for the Nationalists an unprecedented fifth consecutive term in power in Edinburgh.