How Hungary and Poland could shatter the EU’s power

Is the EU about to shatter? There is increasing talk of it after the bloc’s well-publicised difficulties with Poland and Hungary in the last week or so. This is almost certainly premature: nevertheless, the events are significant, and even if they do not break the EU they could precipitate some profound changes.

For some time, undeclared guerrilla war has subsisted between the EU and its two maverick eastern members. Both face multiple court complaints from Brussels about what it sees as rule of law issues and they see as their internal affairs. Hungary is facing allegations of infringement of media freedom and LGBT rights, Poland on stated threats to judicial independence and the supremacy of EU law. Both states also face relentless political sniping from an EU that detests their elected ruling parties. They also risk losing billions in EU funding unless they submit, the latter threat backed by judgments of a traditionally pro-centrist and anti-nationalist European Court of Justice.