How Ed Miliband lost his winning hand

Ed Miliband’s internal critics used to complain that he had a 35 per cent strategy. They claimed that his unambitious plan was to eke out a technical victory by adding a chunk of left-wing Liberal Democrats to the 29 per cent of voters who stayed loyal to Labour in 2010. Those close to Miliband were infuriated by this attack, insisting that their election strategy was far more expansive. Today, however, 35 per cent would sound pretty good to Labour, now becalmed in the low thirties in the polls.

Miliband might never have had a 35 per cent strategy. But he did have a strategic insight that makes Labour’s current predicament all the more striking: he was determined to keep the left united. He realised that the coalition gave Labour a chance to realign British politics; to reunite the left in support of a single party. Add to this the split on the right between the Tories and Ukip, and it was possible to see how Miliband could have the same electoral advantage that Thatcher had in the 1980s when her opponents’ vote was divided. Miliband, who is as ideologically certain as Thatcher was, saw this as his great opening.

But look at the numbers and Miliband’s grand plan to unify the left is in deep trouble. A recent poll that had Labour down as low as 29 per cent put the Greens on 6 per cent. Now this Green advance is far less dramatic than the Ukip surge. But it is important electorally, particularly given that Miliband has been a darling of green groups. He courted them hard when he was energy and climate change secretary and carried on the relationship as Labour leader. Indeed, even when he announced his plan to freeze energy prices in 2013 — a thoroughly un-green idea — they bit their tongues out of admiration for him.