Probably the most interesting new bit of information we received today on Covid-19 was from Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, who implied that he and the government are now assuming that fewer than one in 200 people who are infected with the virus will die.
That still means this form of coronavirus is a terrible scourge. It is not exactly conventional good news. But this Infection Fatality Rate of 0.4 per cent is less than half the circa one per cent he and the chief medical officer Chris Whitty employed as their rule of thumb or heuristic only a few months ago.
To be clear, what Vallance actually said was that if the number of cases of Covid-19 continue to double every seven days, that will mean 50,000 of us per day will be succumbing by mid-October, which would in turn precipitate 200 deaths a day roughly a month later (200 divided by 50,000 equals…).
Comments
Join the debate for just $5 for 3 months
Be part of the conversation with other Spectator readers by getting your first three months for $5.
UNLOCK ACCESS Just $5 for 3 monthsAlready a subscriber? Log in