Mary Dejevsky

How did US intelligence get Afghanistan so wrong?

(Photo: Getty)

It may well go down as the understatement of the year. In a quite extraordinary address to the nation after the fall of Kabul to the Taliban, the US President made this admission:

‘The truth is this did unfold more quickly than we had anticipated. So what’s happened? Afghanistan’s political leaders gave up and fled the country. The Afghan military collapsed, sometimes without trying to fight.’

If this were the only intelligence failing of recent years, then maybe a little indulgence could be shown

More quickly? Than we had anticipated? As recently as 10 August, US intelligence said that it would take the Taliban up to 90 days to take Kabul. Within two days, the US said it was evacuating its embassy and on 15 August, Kabul fell. That is a pretty big misjudgement – and one for which Joe Biden has taken a considerable amount of flak for.

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