‘The only certainty in war is human suffering, uncertain costs, unintended consequences.’ So said Barack Obama in a speech in 2015, defending the historic mistake of his Iran deal. What an irony it is then that ‘unintended consequences’ should apply once again to another of his failures, this time in Syria. Obama’s failure to enforce his red line against Bashar Al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons in 2013 led to the country being torn and split multiple ways between the Assad regime, various ethnic and jihadist military groups and their external backers. Syria has had a lost decade as a result.
The fall of the Assad regime should be celebrated. But it may well be hard to celebrate what comes next
For those past ten years, the chaos in the country has been exploited by Iran, which has used Syria as a ground supply route to Hezbollah in Lebanon. It is fitting, therefore, that Hezbollah’s destruction at the hands of Israel set off a chain of events leading to the collapse of the Assad regime now.
Hezbollah provided critical fighting power to Assad. With Hezbollah shattered, and their Syrian forces running for the border, there was little to stop insurgent forces driving off Assad’s troops and seizing Damascus with barely a fight.
Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) or ‘Assembly for the Liberation of the Levant’ were the main victors. A proscribed terror group in the UK and America, HTS started life as the Al-Nusra Front, an Islamic State spin-off that recruited heavily from Al Qaeda in Syria. After a very public falling out between Al-Nusra and Islamic State, Al-Nusra went it alone. Following a series of rebrandings and amalgamations with other Salafi jihadist groups, HTS was born.
Their administrative wing, the Syrian Salvation Government (SSG), are in charge of the areas they have captured. Until this week, the SSG was running north west Syria with some legitimacy, providing aid to civilians, and running its own bank and oil company. SSG and HTS have been keen to present themselves as having moved on from their jihadist roots. They no longer talk about a global caliphate but describe themselves as an anti-regime, anti-Russian and anti-Iranian force. The words of their leader, Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, have reinforced this message. He has appealed to all sects of the Syrian population since the fall of Assad. Still, HTS will want to consolidate its fundamentalist rule in the areas under its control, which may well lead to the disintegration of Syria into autonomous statelets. Other independent regions in the country are unlikely to cede authority to HTS in Damascus without a significant fight.
We must not overlook therefore the importance of the Syrian National Army (SNA). This Turkish-backed group of thugs have contributed significant fighting power to the downfall of Assad. Turkey is vehemently against the idea of a federated Syria, as this could lead to a permanent autonomous Kurdish region on its border. HTS’s plan would also cement the position of the ‘Rojava region’, or Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, which also has a sizeable Kurdish population which Turkish also fears. In the post-Assad area, there is going to be an immediate tension between two heavily armed actors. This situation could turn vicious in short order.
More broadly, the fall of the Assad regime is a disaster for both Russia and Iran. Putin has lost the critical port of Tartus – Russia’s only port in the Mediterranean. Russian warships will now have to pass through the Turkish straits to resupply in the Black Sea, exposing them to Ukrainian missiles.
A similar blow has been struck to Iran’s hopes of rebuilding Hezbollah after its decimation at the hands of Israel. It has seen the destruction of Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iranian-backed Iraqi militias reportedly refused to fight for Assad. And Iran’s own air defences have been laid to waste by the Israeli air force. Iran’s proxy strategy lies in tatters. With a hostile Trump presidency due in January, the situation looks dire for Iran. It is now or never for its nuclear programme: something Israeli and western intelligence agencies will be watching closely.
The fall of the Assad regime should be celebrated. But it may well be hard to celebrate what comes next. It is highly likely there will be conflict in Syria between HTS, the SNA and the huge numbers of militias dotted around the country.
There may also, however, be an opportunity for the wider Middle East. Hezbollah is so weakened as an armed force that Lebanon has the sliver of an opportunity to escape from the terror group. If HTS can maintain the upper hand over Turkish-backed forces in Syria, the country may be fragmented but have a more stable future, to Erdogan’s chagrin. Ukraine’s hand may now be stronger when Trump begins ceasefire negotiations with Russia. Israel has reinforced its Syrian border in the Golan Heights, and the cessation of the Iran-Lebanon resupply route will make Israel’s northern border with Lebanon safer in the long term.
As Obama said, there are few certainties in war. There are even fewer in the Middle East. The situation is delicate, with endless religious, military and ethnic variables. Only the most foolhardy of analysts would make a confident predication as to what happens next. There is one certainty, however: Assad is a weak, venal monster and his regime met the end it deserved.
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