How can Philip Hammond budget for Brexit?

Before every Budget, George Osborne would tell his aides to prepare for it as if it were their last. His thinking was that chancellors only have so many opportunities to tilt the country in the direction they want it to go. Osborne’s Budget record was far from perfect, but that mindset did at least mean that he achieved some lasting change.

Philip Hammond is approaching this month’s Budget differently. Unlike Osborne or Gordon Brown, he is not a political strategist, and it shows. The Treasury is treating this month’s Budget like a holding exercise.

To be fair to Hammond, one of the reasons the Treasury is taking such a cautious approach is because of the uncertainty around Brexit. Until it becomes clear whether or not there will be a deal, how can a chancellor be expected to lay out what the economy needs? Hammond believes that if the UK and EU reach an agreement, there will be a deal dividend.