In the battle to become prime minister, both Liz Truss and RIshi Sunak have vowed to crack down on Britain’s enemies. As China bullies Taiwan and Russia bombards Ukraine, whoever wins is likely to see their resolve tested from day one in No. 10. What is less clear is how either candidate would deal with the tricky issue of Britain’s ‘frenemies’: those countries that say warm words about the West but can’t always be trusted.
Putin’s war has exposed the divided loyalties of several countries around the world – including India and Turkey – who purport to be friends of Britain. When we have needed these nations to take a stand, they have either refused to help, worked to undermine us, or worse, are actively helping our enemies.
Nowhere has this been more apparent than the Gulf. Despite a myriad of professed British allies in the region, only Qatar and Kuwait have voiced strong support for Ukraine’s territorial integrity.
We might have expected more from Saudi Arabia. Sir Tom Phillips, then UK Ambassador to the Kingdom, described the country as ‘a long-standing ally and key partner’. But when both the Prime Minister and US president Joe Biden asked Mohammed bin Salman (MBS), for help in significantly increasing oil production after the price of crude soared to over $100 (£82) a barrel following the Russian invasion, they were both rebuffed.
Putin’s war has exposed the divided loyalties of several countries around the world
MBS spent a great deal of time laboriously brokering the deal to bring Russia within the OPEC+ group of oil producers. His reluctance to side with the West by breaking that agreement and dramatically increasing supply is prolonging both the energy price crunch afflicting the world and the agony of the Ukraine war.
As The Spectator’s Owen Matthews has pointed out, a small reduction in world oil prices would be devastating for Russia: even a $15 (£12) fall from current prices would push the profits for Russian oil below zero. High oil prices are helping Russia fund its war effort in the teeth of Western sanctions. This means a collapse in energy revenues would have significant consequences for Russia’s ability to stay in the fight.
The United Arab Emirates (UAE), another leading oil producer and supposed ally of the West, also joined the energy supply awkward squad. It abstained from the UN Security Council’s condemnation of Russian aggression in February. But despite being unhelpful to the West, this hardly came as a surprise: it has been clear for some time that the UAE is one of the key enablers of Putin’s Russia.
The Putin regime’s oligarchs have long used the Emirates as a haven for their money laundering, mainly centred around the financial hub of Dubai. Emirati sovereign wealth funds have invested billions into Russian strategic assets in the logistics and defence sectors, amongst others. A report by the US Pentagon in 2020 claimed the UAE had been helping to bankroll the Russian mercenary outfit, the Wagner Group – a network of private military contractors who operate as a deniable proxy for achieving Putin’s foreign policy objectives.
With the visible presence of a number of yachts and private jets belonging to sanctioned Russians spotted in Dubai, the UAE is regarded with increasing suspicion as a potential sanctions-buster, but it faces competition from Nato member Turkey.
For all its sales of military drones to Ukraine, Turkey has resisted joining the Western sanctions regime. In May, it blocked the accession of Finland and Sweden to bolster the Nato alliance.
Last week, in a meeting in Sochi, Putin and Turkey’s leader Recep Erdogan agreed to strengthen their economic cooperation, stoking fears in both the West and Ukraine that Turkey may assist Russia in bypassing restrictions on its banking, energy, and industrial sectors.
India may also be guilty of similar double-dealing. The Royal United Services Institute has warned that Russia’s war machine is now reliant on highly sophisticated Western technology subject to tight export controls. It claims that Russian intelligence units are using India as one of several prime smuggling routes for such equipment.
India’s close relationship with Russia goes back to the Cold War, comprising a host of military, diplomatic and energy ties. This jars with the joint UK-Indian agreement on forming a comprehensive strategic partnership, agreed in 2021. On a visit to Delhi in April, Boris Johnson was pressed on what he would do to stop UK exports to India ending up in Russia, highlighting the very thin diplomatic tightrope the next prime minister must walk.
Whether Truss or Sunak is leading Britain come September, the new PM must navigate this complex minefield of compromised allies and friends who border on enemies. They will have to decide which nations they can count on and who can’t be trusted, and how far to strain relations with our ‘frenemies’ to stop them helping our foes.
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