How Boris and Corbyn could both be undone by Brexit

When the influential Tory ERG Brexiter Steve Baker refused last night on my programme to deny Boris Johnson is closer to his position on how to leave the EU than Dominic Raab, and he would be backing Johnson, I concluded that Johnson is now unstoppable.

Barring some self-inflicted cataclysm (which cannot be ruled out) – the former foreign secretary will be Tory leader and new PM in July.

Because where Baker goes, a significant number of other Brexiter Tory MPs will venture too; Baker denies he is their shepherd, but the ERG MPs habitually choose the sometimes illusory safety of travelling as a herd.

If Johnson can coral David Cameron’s deputy chief of staff Oliver Dowden and Steve Baker into the same tent – as he appears to be doing (although in the end it is a secret ballot, so MPs can say they’ll vote one way and do something utterly different) – he looks certain to garner enough MPs’ support to progress to the final stage, where 140,000 Tory members will choose between a brace of candidates.