How bad is North Shropshire by historic standards?

So, how bad is the North Shropshire by-election result? All across the country, that is the question which Tory members, both in Parliament and out are now asking themselves. Winner Helen Morgan took the seat by nearly 6,000 votes, overturning a Conservative majority of almost 23,000 on a 34 per cent swing. Turnout was 46.3 per cent. The seat voted Leave in 2016 by 60 per cent and had been held by the party since 1832, with the exception of a few years during the Edwardian period.

The seat had a 40.6 per cent Conservative majority in 2019 – the equivalent of Labour losing Leeds Central, Cardiff Central, or Islington South, home to Hilary Benn, Jo Stevens and Emily Thornberry respectively. And, while this change in vote share would never be repeated across the country at a general election, it’s fun to imagine – as some commentators are – a Parliament with 505 Lib Dems, 79 Labour MPs and just five Tories.