Hamish Macdonell

How a Ukip victory could hasten the break-up of the UK

In a sense it could be the political version of the law of unintended consequences. There is Nigel Farage insisting that he is a British unionist, that he opposes Scottish nationalism and does not want to see Scottish independence. Yet success for Farage and Ukip in the Euro elections this week could possibly do more to hasten the break-up of the UK than almost anything else.

That is the implication of a startling new poll published in the Scotsman this morning. ICM found that almost one in five Scots were more likely to vote Yes in the independence referendum if Ukip does well this week.

A total of three in five of those asked said Ukip success would make no difference to their choice in the independence referendum and 14 per cent said they did not know. A total of eight per cent said it would make them more likely to vote No but 18 per cent said it would make them more likely to vote Yes.

This finding has to be taken alongside another key part of the poll which found that support for Ukip in Scotland is languishing at nine per cent, not enough to secure a single Euro seat north of the border.

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