How a cow won the 1970 election

The conspiracy theory of history is rarely right; the bungle theory is rarely wrong. So it was at the 1970 British general election. I bungled. The polls gave Labour a 3 percent lead; instead the Tories won. Historians disagree on why this was so. Some blame the margin of error in opinion polls. Others say there was a late swing. If so, I was to blame.

It was the Sunday before the Thursday polling. We were panicking. Our Tory backroom boys gathered together three or four future cabinet ministers. I asked how were we to deal with inflation – more important in those days than the budget deficit. We agreed that I would write a speech for Edward Heath saying that selective employment tax would be abolished, cutting the rise in prices ‘at a stroke’ – rather like reducing value added tax.

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I presented my draft speech to Heath at an early morning meeting before his daily press conference.