House prices aren’t falling any time soon

Economic forecasts rarely survive far into the New Year. Just look at last year’s prophecy by the IMF that the UK economy would shrink by 0.6 per cent in 2023, which was already being revised by March. But we are only three days into 2024 and already the forecasts of falling house prices are beginning to look somewhat questionable. In November, the Office for Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) forecast that prices would slip by 4.7 per cent over the year. The Halifax followed that up by forecasting a 2 to 4 per cent slide.

Yesterday, however, the Halifax became one of those banks which has started slashing fixed rates. A two year fix is suddenly down from 5.64 per cent to 4.81 per cent as the greater-than-expected fall in inflation in November leads to downward revisions in the expected path of future interest rates. Other lenders, too, have begun to slash fixed rates in the expectation that the Bank of England’s will start to cut the base rate by May.