Rishi and Suella’s fates hinge on the Rwanda ruling

The first King’s Speech for more than 70 years was a festival of the expected: the royal reading of a No. 10 press release. Some dividing lines were drawn between the Tories and Labour and some loose ends tied up – but there was no real change in political direction. ‘It’s a continuance of the direction and path we are on,’ explained a senior government figure.

But if current polls are any indicator, to continue in the same direction means a landslide Labour victory and a Tory defeat of historic proportions at the next election. ‘It won’t spark rebellion but it certainly won’t lead to much excitement,’ was one MP’s quickfire assessment of the speech. ‘[Rishi Sunak] has slid back into management mode,’ sighs a member of the government.

Sunak wants to fight the general election with a focus on energy and crime. He tried to put Labour in a bind as to how to respond with the announcement of a justice bill pledging tougher sentences for the worst offenders, as well as legislation requiring annual rounds of oil and gas licensing in the North Sea. It means Labour would have to make a choice on revoking the old regime – rather than simply hoping the Tories renew the licences before they get in.

The Conservatives are also trying to make Labour squirm over the media bill, which is intended to protect press freedom. They’re keen to highlight the threat of state regulation of the media under Labour. Thangam Debbonaire, the shadow culture secretary, is on record saying she wished to ‘bring down the house of Murdoch’.

Other bills – such as legislation for an independent football regulator – were part of No. 10’s efforts to tick off as much of the 2019 manifesto as they can ahead of making a fresh set of pledges next year.