History teaches us the Chancellor’s Doomsday warning over Brexit is nothing to be scared of

George Osborne’s doomsday warning over Brexit has an odd historical echo to it. Take James Rothschild’s letter to his brother in 1831, just months before the Great Reform Act was passed the following year. He warned about how ‘the infamous liberal spirit’ could affect markets. ‘Let us get down to the nitty gritty,’ he said. ‘We fell some 30 per cent (in Paris) and I hope To God this will not be repeated this time in England.’ It turns out that historically international financiers have not been the hugest fans of popular revolts.

The parallels with the stark predictions regarding Brexit from the Treasury, the OECD, and bankers willing to lend their names to open letters 180 years later are striking. To be fair to Rothschild, his gloomy predictions were at least vaguely realistic. However, the similarities echoing through the ages can still tell us something. It seems that for a certain, rentier class, a neat, predictable market is preferable to messy freedom.