The more you study history, the more you realise how hopeless it is to try predicting the future. Even sophisticated polling can’t prevent surprises like the two recent whoppers in the UK: the wrong prediction of a razor-thin margin for David Cameron in 2015, followed by the wrong prediction of a Brexit defeat in this summer’s referendum.
I’m a history professor. If anyone knows better than to make predictions, it’s me. Nevertheless, I predict that the Democratic Party will win the presidency and the Senate in November, but will continue as minority party in the House of Representatives. Let me explain why.
Every fourth year, presidential elections bring out plenty of voters, and winning candidates usually create a wave for fellow party members as they run for other offices. This effect was massive in 2008 when Democrats clinging to Barack Obama’s coat-tails won big majorities in both houses. Like nearly everyone else I think Hillary Clinton will win the presidency this year, and in doing so will help other Democrats to win elections nationwide.
All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are contested every two years.
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