Hedgers vs Ditchers: the new Brexit divide

Brexit could look very different by the end of this month. In the coming days, the government is expected to present a new version of the ‘backstop’, which is meant to address the Irish border problem. This would see the whole of the UK stay in a customs union with the EU and copy EU rules on goods and agriculture until, and unless, a comprehensive trade deal is done. So much for taking back control.

There is another great danger in this approach — it would result in a permanent Brexit limbo. Britain would be a rule-taker unable to pursue a meaningfully different economic model. Once the ‘backstop’ is in place, it’s hard to see what incentive the EU would have to negotiate and approve a big free-trade deal. After all, what would be left to discuss is services — where the UK has a £92 billion surplus with the EU27 in contrast to our £135 billion goods deficit.