Has Ukip given up persuading one would-be Tory defector?

Has one Ukip defection become less likely? Before Christmas, top Tories were falling over themselves to tell Basildon and Billericay MP John Baron how much they valued him and how seriously they were taking his demands for proper compensation for nuclear test veterans. Baron was very high on the list of MPs likely to defect to Ukip, and did little to assuage the fears of his colleagues by saying things like ‘never say never’ when asked if he might leave the Tories.

But this week Ukip selected a candidate in his constituency, which suggests that the party has given up on the Tory MP moving over to join the People’s Army. They had been calling Tory MPs saying that they would run a poll in their constituency with them as the Ukip candidate to show how well they would do, and threatening to select a good Ukip candidate who might cost them the seat.