Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Has the Lib Dem bubble burst?

Is this the end of the LibDem soufflé surge? Tomorrow’s News of the World has an Ipsos-Mori poll – conducted the day after the second debate – putting things back to where they were pre-debates: Tories with a six point lead over Labour and the LibDems lagging seven points behind Labour, i.e. 36-30-23. This is broadly where Mori had them in March.

The polls are in a state of flux, to be sure. But Ipsos did a full, 1,200 weighted sample, telephone poll. Even on this basis, Cameron would be 42 seats short of a majority. But this is the best news he’s had since the first TV debate – and a sign that he might yet pull through with a majority.

Yet other polls in tomorrow’s Sundays suggest that there is still some rise in the LibDem soufflé.

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