How many times have you heard in recent months that the era of low inflation is at an end? The case for that assertion is beginning to look somewhat shaky. This morning brings news that the rate of inflation last month – at least as measured by the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) – fell slightly in December from 3.1 per cent to 3.0 per cent. While that is hardly a dramatic move it shows that, once again, the surge in inflation predicted by some has failed to materialise. Now that the inflationary effect of a fall in the pound in the second half of 2016 has dropped out of the annual figures there is every reason to suspect that November’s CPI figure of 3.1 per cent will represent the peak of the current inflationary cycle.
Ross Clark
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