Yesterday, the news was dominated by Imperial College’s React study which suggested – in contrast to the fall in recorded new infections – that the prevalence of Covid-19 in the general population was either static during the first ten days of lockdown (between 6 and 15 January), or could even have risen slightly. This morning, however, we have a second opinion in the form of the ONS infection survey, which like React is based on testing a randomised sample of the population. It suggests that the prevalence of Covid-19 did indeed fall in the first half of January – but not by all that much.
Between 9 and 16 January, the ONS estimates, 1.024 million people in England and Wales were infected, the equivalent to 1 in 55 of the population. Between 27 December and January it had estimated the figure at 1.122 million, or 1 in 50.
There is a gap in the data between 3 and 8 January because the ONS did not publish its infection survey last week due to quality control issues.
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