Has the Arab Spring given way to an Islamist Winter?

The obituary of the Arab Spring has already been written by many commentators who see political Islamists as the only winners of unrest in the Middle East. The Arab Spring, it is said, has given way to an Islamist winter. With the Brotherhood installed in Egypt and Islamists from the Ennahda party driving through their agenda in Tunisia, this is a tempting conclusion to reach.

Yet, provisional results from the Libyan elections warrant a reassessment of what is really taking place in the region. Mahmoud Jibril, who served as Prime Minister in the aftermath of Gaddafi’s demise, will almost certainly secure a majority once the results are finalised later this week. His party, the National Forces Alliance, is not exactly secular by standards we might recognise and does draw some inspiration from Islam – but it can hardly be described as Islamist. For voters wanting expressly Islamist candidates there were more conservative options available such as the Brotherhood’s Justice and Development party.