Has Sweden been vindicated?

Sweden has released growth figures for the second quarter – a contraction of 8.6 per cent – and two narratives are circulating. The first is that the Swedish experiment has failed spectacularly, resulting in both a higher death toll than its Scandinavian counterparts as well as a collapsed economy. The second is that Sweden has been vindicated, taking a much less severe economic hit than the EU’s average and in a better position to recover as well. Which is the fairer assessment?

Sweden has indeed taken an economic beating despite never instigating a full lockdown. Its population’s change in behaviour (adopting social distancing and heading indoors despite this not being dictated by formal rules), combined with every other major economy around them shutting down has spiralled the country into a recession, along with the rest of Europe. Sweden’s economic downturn also goes much deeper than other countries, like Hong Kong, which also avoided a full lockdown (though arguably much of Hong Kong’s economic pain has already been felt, having contracted 5.5